by Milosz Zielinski, Inst of For Relations/Journalism Warsaw
Posted in on Sunday, Nov 25
"What a big deal about it. Nothing will change, for sure. Poland will be
still on the USA's short leash. They will buy more of the useless F-16s at
70 mil. a piece. There will be no change in the visa situation. Poles will
still be in Iraq and Afghanistan for no good reason anyway. Wake up Poles!!!
Many Polish people hope that new government will produce, but it's not gonna
happen. All of you who voted for PO [Civic Platform], you are doomed to a
surprise. New guys will change nothing. Good luck, he, he!"
Andy Knap, Sprucedale, Ontario, Canada.
This quotation is one of a few I was given some days ago by my English
teacher. She wanted to show us how people around the world had reacted to
Poland's recent election. I am pretty sure that many Americans are really
interested in the ongoing situation in my country. I heard many voices like
that written above nothing will change, Poland will remain America's most
trusted (or maybe gullible?) ally. Some facts have shown that it doesn't
have to be so.
Three weeks ago Poles chose their new parliament (Sejm and Senat). The
58-year-old prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski called the elections two years
early hoping his support base would increase and therefore his party, Law
and Justice, would be able to rule individually. This was crucial to him
since after winning the election in 2005 he had had to form an extremely
uncomfortable coalition with ultra-populists and nationalists. It collapsed
some months ago and Law and Justice couldn't rule effectively. Kaczynski's
biggest opponent, liberal and pro-European 50-year-old Donald Tusk with his
Civic Platform Party, was also determined to speed up the elections because
he was strongly against Law and Justice's internal and external policy.
After a relatively aggressive campaign, Poles voted on October 21st. The result meant a
sweeping victory for Civic Platform (over 40 per cent of votes) while Law
and Justice lost with "only" 34 per cent. It means that new government will
be formed by Tusk's party (together with small Peasants' Party).
Although the new government hasn't started working yet, the future prime
minister Tusk has made several declarations. First, he will do his best to
withdraw Polish troops from Iraq as soon as possible. This will probably
take more than six months. Second, Poland should be more active and
constructive in relations with other EU countries, especially with Germany
and France whose attitude toward the USA and the war in Iraq is believed to
be very negative. To balance it Tusk has designated Radek Sikorski to be the
Minister of Foreign Affairs, a man who is very popular among American
politicians (by the way, he ran the ministry of the National Defense in
Kaczynski's cabinet but he resigned and supported Civic Platform after a
clash with the prime minister and his twin brother, president Lech
Kaczynski). However, some experts say this step won't be sufficient to
maintain as friendly relations with America as Poland has had for the last
six years. Now it seems that the withdrawal of Polish troops from Iraq is
only a matter of time.
There is also another reason that may impair Transatlantic relations. It's
Russia. Since Law and Justice started using historical facts as the basis of
Poland's official attitude towards Russia (the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, the
question of Katyn where over 10,000 Polish officers and intellectuals were
murdered by the Soviet secret police), Putin's country has been thinking
about Poland as one of its biggest enemies. Tusk wants to change this
situation and that's why he said that the improvement of Polish-Russian
relations would be one of his cabinet's most significant priorities. If it
fulfills this promise, the "Euro-Russian warming" in Polish diplomacy may
influence traditional Transatlantic friendship negatively. Head of the
think-tank DemosEuropa, Pawel Swieboda, said that Civic Platform's victory
might mean taking a tougher stance in negotiations to install the American
anti-missile shield in Poland. Many experts believe that this "tougher
stance" could lead to disagreeing on the American proposal. Even if it
doesn't happen, no one doubts that talks on this field will have to be very
sensitive as Poland's conditions will be much more difficult to fulfill.
Thus, the situation in this matter may become quite complicated in the next
few weeks.
To sum up, it seems to me that Andy Knap might be wrong or at least too
pessimistic saying that nothing is going to change. The abovementioned facts
have tilted me toward being more prudent in judging the future foreign
policy of Poland so decisively. Hovewer, there is one thing I am almost sure
about: recent elections have began a new era in Polish European and
Transatlantic relations, whatever it means.
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